By Peter Omopo
The Federal Government has projected an increase of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in crude oil production as new investments flow into Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The Commission said the boost will come from 28 newly approved Field Development Plans (FDPs) in 2025, expected to deliver 600,000 barrels of crude oil and over 2 billion standard cubic feet (scf) of gas daily.
If realized, the output will push Nigeria’s daily crude production to about 1.89 million barrels, up from 1.39 million barrels per day recorded in September 2025.
NUPRC Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, announced the projection at the 2025 World Energies Summit organized by the Frontier Energy Network in London, according to a statement by the Commission’s Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu.
“In 2025 alone, 28 new Field Development Plans have already been approved, unlocking an additional 1.4 billion barrels of oil and 5.4 trillion cubic feet of gas,” Komolafe said.
“These projects are expected to add nearly 600,000 barrels of oil per day and more than 2 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day, supported by $18.2 billion in committed capital expenditure (CAPEX).”
Komolafe said these investments reflect a “clear trajectory of growth and renewed investor confidence,” positioning Nigeria as a leading global energy hub.
He noted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has introduced bold reforms to attract investment and promote energy transition while ensuring national energy security.
“The government is responding with strategic reforms to turn challenges into opportunities. The upcoming Block Licensing Round presents vast opportunities for investors,” he stated.
The NUPRC boss highlighted the success of recent licensing initiatives, including the 2022 Petroleum Prospecting Licences, the Mini-Bid Round for deep offshore blocks, and the 2024 Licensing Round, which he said was widely praised for transparency by operators and the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI).
According to him, rig activity in Nigeria has surged from 8 in 2021 to 70 in 2025, with 41 rigs currently drilling on-site. He added that production had risen from 1.46 million bpd in October 2024 to about 1.8 million bpd presently.
Major Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) such as the $5 billion Bonga North Project and $500 million Ubeta Gas Project, he said, underscore renewed long-term investor confidence, with more major projects expected soon.
Komolafe emphasized that energy transition for Nigeria is also about energy security, adding that the country’s strategy — the Decade of Gas — aligns with its transition goals.
He explained that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 has brought fiscal clarity and investor confidence through new regulations focused on transparency, sustainability, and competitiveness.
“The NUPRC has issued 24 new regulations benchmarked against global standards to restore stability and confidence in the sector,” Komolafe said.
He also credited President Tinubu’s three Executive Orders of 2024 with further incentivizing investment across the oil and gas value chain.
As part of Nigeria’s decarbonization efforts, Komolafe said the Commission is implementing a Decarbonisation Framework integrating carbon capture, monitoring, reporting, verification (MRV) systems, and access to carbon markets.
He further noted that the Host Communities Development Trusts, established under the PIA, have improved cooperation between oil companies and host communities, strengthening social trust and operational stability.
“These outcomes prove that Nigeria’s upstream sector is on a strong growth path and continues to attract investment at a global scale,” he said.
“As we prepare to launch the next Block Licensing Round, I invite local and international investors to join us in shaping Nigeria’s energy future.”
Recent developments underscore the trend: on Tuesday, Shell announced a $2 billion investment in the HI Field, a shallow offshore gas project in Oil Mining Lease 144 — Nigeria’s second major gas investment in 18 months.
With total upstream commitments now exceeding $8 billion since President Tinubu took office in 2023, the Federal Government says the oil and gas industry is firmly on the path of revival, stability, and sustainable growth.
